Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said the India-UK free trade pact will boost MSMEs and create jobs, and exuded confidence that the target of doubling bilateral trade will be achieved ahead of the target date of 2030.
'Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft have large operations in India and rely on smooth trade and data flows.' 'Restrictions could raise their costs, limit AI chip exports, and complicate their India strategies.'
With US President Donald Trump "temporarily suspending" country-specific reciprocal tariffs until July 9, India sees the three-month window as an opportunity to renew its push for a proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US and expedite finalisation of the first tranche of the trade deal.
US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Pakistan to develop its oil reserves, suggesting Pakistan might sell oil to India in the future.
India is growing fast, but to keep growing strong, the government must make more things at home, create jobs, and spend money wisely, suggests Rajiv Memani, regional managing partner, Africa-India Region, EY.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal assures Parliament that India will take necessary steps to protect its national interests following the US announcement of tariffs on Indian goods. The government is assessing the implications and engaging with stakeholders.
'We will be able to anticipate the full picture of the impact after August, which is also the time when demand for a year begins to peak ahead of the December holidays and Valentine's Day.'
The US Representative criticised the administration's new USD 100,000 fee on H-1B visas, observing that Indians hold 70 per cent of these visas and saying the change directly harms workers who have long supported US innovation across technology, science and medicine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his upcoming visit to India in December and expressed his intention to address the trade imbalance between the two countries, particularly concerning India's crude oil imports from Russia. He also lauded India's independent stance on international issues and highlighted the strong relationship between the two nations.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday makes history as she presents a record ninth consecutive Budget that is expected to unveil measures to sustain growth momentum, maintain fiscal discipline, and contain reforms that could buffer the economy from global trade frictions, including US tariffs.
Among major engagements in 2026 is the visit of the European Union leadership, chief guests at the Republic Day parade.
India is seeking either an exemption or a longer timeline on the pharmaceutical tariffs, expected to kick in by July 31.
He added that India sells to the US, its biggest "client", "massive" amounts of goods, "but we sell them very little - Until now a totally one sided relationship, and it has been for many decades."
From labelling India the 'Tariff King' to slapping sweeping import duties, US President Donald Trump has steadily hardened his trade stance on India. These announcements are being seen as a pressure tactic to get New Delhi to agree to demands made by the US in the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
India has a comparative edge over key competitors in a majority of products it exports to the US and stands to gain market share as the US raises tariffs on its major trade partners, NITI Aayog said on Monday. In its quarterly trade report, it recommended that the government fast-track the India-US free trade agreement with time-bound goals to resolve non-tariff barriers and finalise digital trade rules on data flows and e-signatures to support services exports.
The textile and apparel sector is India's second-largest employment provider, after agriculture, and it is now caught in a wave of uncertainty following the Donald Trump administration's tariff policy.
India's exports to the US contracted 8.6 per cent to $6.3 billion in October, while imports rose 13.9 per cent to $4.5 billion leading to a trade surplus of $1.8 billion during the month.
'For those in for the long haul, this is a God-given opportunity.' 'Your market is falling despite strong fundamentals, and such a clear roadmap has been announced.'
To shield against US President Donald Trump's tariff shock, analysts have been advising investors to focus on stocks of domestic-oriented companies, rather than export-centric ones, to minimise potential losses.
India's micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) - which contribute over 45 per cent to outbound shipments - are facing a major disruption following the United States (US) decision to impose 50 per cent additional tariffs on the country's exports. MSME industry bodies have raised an alarm over the deep impact, seeking immediate government intervention.
'The US slump could hit our hosiery market hard since 40 per cent of our exports go there.' 'Job losses could be severe if the government doesn't step in fast.'
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
The US is expected to push for sweeping changes in India's policies, ranging from tariff reductions to regulatory overhauls, that could benefit American firms and exporters, under the proposed bilateral trade agreement with India, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
Amid uncertainty over trade talks with the US, Prime Minister Modi asserts India's commitment to protecting the interests of farmers and fishermen, vowing no compromise on their behalf.
The United States action of levying 25 per cent additional tariff on Indian goods is 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable', India said on Wednesday in a firm reaction, signalling increasing tensions between the two strategic partners over New Delhi's energy ties with Moscow.
The additional 25 per cent tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on India is set to deliver a major blow to West Bengal's export-driven economy, with the state's labour-intensive leather, engineering and marine sectors expecting losses ahead of the festive season, stakeholders said. The increased levies on Indian products for the country's purchases of Russian oil came into effect on Wednesday, bringing the total amount of tariff imposed on New Delhi to 50 per cent.
Quota-based duty concessions granted by India to New Zealand for apples, kiwifruit, and Manuka honey are linked to the delivery of agriculture productivity action plans committed by the island country under the free trade agreement.
India has strongly advised its nationals to avoid travelling to Iran due to the deteriorating security situation and widespread anti-government protests.
New Delhi, while opting not to retaliate yet to the American tariffs, has in recent weeks sought to reinforce its friendship with Moscow, and recalibrate its ties with Beijing rather than surrender to Washington's diktats.
'It's important for India to think about areas where it wants the US to move.' 'We can be far more innovative in what we ask the US.' 'Given that there's a package deal, why not do it?'
As the potential threat of a steep 200 per cent tariff on pharmaceutical imports hangs in the air, analysts and industry insiders feel that focus on exports to non-US regions as well as domestic market will increase as a long-term trend. US President Donald Trump told CNBC's Squawk Box in the first week of August that planned tariffs on import of pharmaceutical products to the US could eventually reach up to 250 per cent.
Very sensitive items -- such as apples, which carry political weight and are closely tied to farmer interests in states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand -- may face restricted concessions.
United States President Donald Trump announced a 50 per cent tariff on imports from Brazil, starting August 1, and called the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro a 'witch hunt', adding that the 'trial should not take place'.
Officials said the government-to-government engagement between the two countries on all other issues remains normal, but conceded rough spots over trade that need ironing out.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
This is the first Budget in my memory of Budgets over the last half a century which has embraced upfront, enthusiastically and emphatically, technology, modernity and fiscal sobriety, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
The Indian team has returned from the US after holding trade talks with their American counterparts in New York, an official said on Thursday. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who led the team, will be back on Friday.
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